Climate projections over the Great Lakes Region: using two-way coupling of a regional climate model with a 3-D lake model
نویسندگان
چکیده
Abstract. Warming trends in the Laurentian Great Lakes and surrounding areas have been observed recent decades, concerns continue to rise about pace pattern of future climate change over world's largest freshwater system. To date, most regional models used for projections either neglected lake-atmosphere interactions or are only coupled with a 1-D column lake model represent hydrodynamics. This study presents projection that has employed two-way coupling 3-D (GLARM) resolve hydrodynamics essential large lakes. Using three carefully selected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) general circulation (GCMs), we show GLARM ensemble average substantially reduces surface air temperature precipitation biases driving GCM present-day simulations. The improvements not displayed from an atmospheric perspective but also evident accurate simulations ice coverage. We further present projected mid-21st century (2030–2049) late 21st (2080–2099) Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 RCP 8.5 scenarios. Under 8.5, basin is warm by 1.3–2.1 ?C 4.1–5.0 end relative early (2000–2019). Moderate mitigation (RCP 4.5) mid-century warming 0.8–1.8 late-century 1.8–2.7 ?C. Annual increase entire basin, varying 0 % 13 during 9 32 different scenarios significant increases spring fall when current highest minimal winter it lowest. Lake temperatures (LSTs) across five lakes all simulations, strong seasonal spatial variability. LST occur Superior Ontario. strongest persists into summer, resulting earlier more intense stratification future. In addition, diminishing suggests transition dimictic monomictic century. contrast, relatively smaller LSTs heat transfer deep water due mixing energy required melting. Correspondingly, monthly mean cover reduce 3 %–15 10 %–40 4.5, respectively. coastal regions, duration decrease up 60 d.
منابع مشابه
Towards coupling a 3D hydrodynamic lake model with the Canadian Regional Climate Model: Simulation on Great Slave Lake
Recently, it has been recognized that large lakes exert considerable influence on regional climate systems and vice versa and that the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM), which does not currently have a lake component, requires the development of a coupled lake sub-model. Prior to a full effort for this model development, however, studies are needed to select and assess the suitability of a...
متن کاملEvaluating the effect of climate change on areal reduction factors using regional climate model projections
Areal reduction factors (ARFs) are commonly used to transform point design rainfall to represent the average design rainfall for a catchment area. While there has been considerable attention paid in the research and engineering communities to the likely changes in rainfall intensity in future climates, the issue of changes to design areal rainfall has been largely ignored. This paper investigat...
متن کاملRegional Climate Model Projections for the State of Washington
Global climate models do not have sufficient spatial resolution to represent the atmospheric and land surface processes that determine the unique regional heterogeneity of the climate of the State of Washington. If future large-scale weather patterns interact differently with the local terrain and coastlines than current weather patterns, local changes in temperature and precipitation could be ...
متن کاملinvestigating the feasibility of a proposed model for geometric design of deployable arch structures
deployable scissor type structures are composed of the so-called scissor-like elements (sles), which are connected to each other at an intermediate point through a pivotal connection and allow them to be folded into a compact bundle for storage or transport. several sles are connected to each other in order to form units with regular polygonal plan views. the sides and radii of the polygons are...
ذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Geoscientific Model Development
سال: 2022
ISSN: ['1991-9603', '1991-959X']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4425-2022